本期投资提示
A股整体一季报呈现“价稳量跌”的特性：1）净利润增速见底回升但营收增速仍在下行，并且海外收入占比创新高，进一步说明国内需求端偏弱：本轮A股（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所，以下如无特殊说明均为此口径）扣非净利润增速高点出现在21Q1（140crashbandicootpspgames.5%），持续了下行8个季度后于23Q1见底（-11.8%）。此后降幅收窄并持续回升4个季度，但24Q1仍为负增长，2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-4.8%、-3.4%。本轮A股营收增速高点出现在21Q1（44.8%），截至24Q1仍未见向上拐点，已持续下行12个季度。2023年和24Q1营收增速分别为3.1%、0.2%。虽然营收增速下滑，但2023年海外营收占比提升至13.9%，该值是2015年以来的新高，企业出海进程加快。2）毛利率延续修复，但ROE再次向下。24Q1 A股毛利率（TTM）几乎与2023年持平，从23Q2的17.0%（自2018Q4的20.5%连续下滑，且为2010年以来新低）回升至当前的17.3%。但ROE在触底回升两个季度后再度向下，从23Q4的7.5%回落至7.3%（2010年以来的最低值是发生在20Q1的6.7%）。ROE杜邦三因子均有所下滑。24Q1的资产周转率（TTM）从23Q4的59.7%下降至24Q1的59.4%，权益乘数（TTM）从23Q4的285.2%下降至24Q1的284.2%，销售净利率（TTM）从23Q4的4.4%回落到24Q1的4.3%。
不同板块的盈利情况对比，创业板和科创板净利润增速已转负为正，但主板仍为负增长；不过这三大板块营收增速均在下行中，且不同板块的营收增速的变化差异度并没有净利润的明显，可见科创板和创业板在2023年年报的计提处理上更为显著：主板（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所）2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-0.8%和-4.3%，营收增速分别为2.8%和-0.1%；创业板（剔除温氏股份）2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-13.0%和2.2%，营收增速分别为6.4%和2.5%；科创板2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-50.4%和5.2%，营收增速分别为4.6%和3.6%。主板（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所）和创业板（剔除温氏股份）24Q1 ROE（TTM）分别为7.6%和6.5%，仍在下行中，但科创板ROE（TTM）从2023年的4.0%回升至24Q1的4.5%。
供给端增速放慢，上市公司更加注重分红：1）规模以上工企库存磨底后回升，A股存货同比增速开始拐头向上。2023年11月规上工企产成品库存增速二次磨底，至2024年3月回升至2.5%。A股存货同比增速23Q1以来首次进入负增长区间，23Q4降至-4.7%，24Q1边际回补，增速回升1.6个百分点至-3.1%。虽然营收增速尚未扭转下滑态势，但由于库存绝对水平较低，存货销售比降至历史低位。2）24Q1 A股资本开支和在建工程同比增速继续下行，未来转固压力继续下降，固定资产同比开始拐头向下。资本开支累计增速由23Q2的14.0%高点已回落三个季度至24Q1的1.6%，在建工程同比增速由23Q1的19.1%高点连续回落四个季度至24Q1的8.3%。在建工程增速放缓传导至固定资产，固定资产同比增速由23Q4的11.5%回落至24Q1的9.6%。3）资本开支放缓背景下，上市公司更加注重投资者回报，各项分红指标均有提升。2023年A股分红公司数量占比（剔除利润为负的样本）达到88.6%，年度分红总额累计约1.3万亿元，整体分红比率（分红金额/归母净利润）上升至43.4%，无论是公司数量占比还是分红比率均是2005年以来的最高值。以2023年年末市值计算A股整体股息率为1.90%，是2006年以来仅次于2018年的股息率（1.93%），因此若是从股债收益率的对比来看，当前的股息率指标表明当前A股市场指数处于底部区域。
三大现金流单季净额来看，A股24Q1现金流流入相较于去年同期放缓，扩张意愿收缩，与上述资本开支增速下行趋势相呼应。24Q1同比23Q1经营性净现金流流出额度有所扩大；筹资性净现金流流入减少，反映企业融资加杠杆意愿不足；23Q4和24Q1投资性净现金流与上年同期相比流出幅度均收窄。24Q1收现比（即销售商品提供劳务收到的现金占营业收入比重）中枢继续下行。营收增速和用来衡量营收质量的收现比均处于下降通道，24Q1收现比相较23Q4下降0.4个百分点至100.3%，处于4%的历史低分位。
央企在盈利能力和利润增速上仍具优势，民企利润增速改善，各类型企业毛利率回升但营收增速和ROE回落。成长性：民企利润增速回升，各类型企业营收增速继续下行。盈利能力：央国企毛利率和ROE绝对水平靠前，各类企业毛利率继续回升。其中央企控费能力相对更强，2023年以来央企管理费用同比增速进入负增长区间，央国企销售费用增速也大幅收缩，毛利率低位修复背景下，央国企费用率的下降有助于盈利保持韧性。
风险提示：国内外经济复苏不及预期；地缘风险不确定性带来对行业基本面的扰动；财报数据具有一定滞后性，不代表未来趋势。
1． 24Q1 A股“价稳量跌”，净利润增速回升但营收增速仍在下行，内需偏弱
crashbandicootpspgames我们选择用扣非净利润累计增速以及行业当前 ROE 所处历史分位作为绝对景气的表征，同时选择用盈利增速相关的营收累计增速和扣非净利润累计增速，盈利能力相关的 ROE 和毛利率，以及运营效率相关的存货周转率、应收账款周转率共6个指标的环比变化作为景气改善的表征。
从24Q1 财务指标改善数量综合来看景气度变化趋势：
1) overall: three indicators of A-share non-financial and "three barrels of oil" deduction of non-net profit growth, gross profit margin and inventory turnover have been improved.
2) Plate: Science and Technology Innovation Board, main board and gem improved 3, 2 and 2 financial indicators respectively
3) wide base index: Kechuang 50 improves 4 financial indicators, while CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and Guo Zheng 2000 all improve 2 financial indicators.
4) different types of enterprises: the two financial indicators of central enterprises and private enterprises have improved, while local state-owned enterprises have only improved gross profit margin.
1.1 the overall quarterly report of A shares shows the characteristic of "price stability and quantity drop".
From a total point of view, the overall quarterly report of A shares shows the characteristics of "price stability": the growth rate of net profit has bottomed out, but the growth rate of revenue is still declining, and the proportion of overseas income has reached a new high, which further illustrates the weak domestic demand side.
In terms of growth, this round of A shares (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange, unless otherwise specified) appeared at 21 Q1 (140.5%) and bottomed out in 23Q1 (- 11.8%) after eight quarters of decline. Since then, the decline has narrowed and rebounded for four quarters, but 24Q1 remains negative, with non-net profit growth of-4.8 per cent and-3.4 per cent respectively in 2023 and 24Q1. This round of A-share revenue growth peak appeared in 21 Q1 (44.8%), as of 24 Q1 has not seen an upward inflection point, has been down for 12 quarters. Revenue growth in 2023 and 24Q1 was 3.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively. Although revenue growth has declined, the share of overseas revenue has risen to 13.9 per cent in 2023, the highest since 2015, and the process of companies going to sea has accelerated.
Seasonal analysis: 24Q1 A-share revenue growth rate is higher than the historical seasonal performance. The 24Q1 growth rate of operating income was-15.9% month-on-month, which was 2.9% stronger than that of seasonality. Taking into account the impairment of goodwill and other one-time treatment in the fourth quarter of previous years, the month-on-month growth rate of net profit is volatile, so there is no analysis and comparison here.
In the macro dimension, the volume and price of industrial enterprises have both stabilized since 23Q3. The cumulative growth rate of operating income and profits of 24Q1 industrial enterprises fluctuated upward over the same period last year, entering a positive growth range, leading the trend of income and profit of A-share listed companies. From the perspective of macro data, industrial value added and PPI represent the dimensions of "volume" and "price" respectively. The overall industrial sector experienced a 10-month "simultaneous fall in volume and price" (2022.03-2023.01). Since then, industrial value added continued to rise, the decline in PPI narrowed slowly, and the industry "both volume and price are stable".
The dimension of price, the differentiation of domestic and foreign commodity prices. Major international oil-producing countries continued to reduce production, superimposed geopolitical factors, and international crude oil prices rose. Some domestic commodity prices are under pressure, pig prices continue to fall except for holiday impulse demand support, and coal prices 24Q1 downward under the pressure of supply release. The cumulative growth rate of domestic PPI has accelerated since the fourth quarter of 2022 and has recovered moderately since September 2023. Among them, the decline in PPI in the raw materials industry continued to narrow, driving the reduction in PPI of the means of production to-3.3 per cent. Terminal consumer demand recovered weakly, and the cumulative growth rate of PPI of means of subsistence continued to decline to-1.0% of 24Q1.
In terms of volume, the cumulative growth rate of 24Q1 industrial value added increased from 4.6% of 23Q4 to 6.1%. Among all kinds of industrial sectors, the recovery of manufacturing, public utilities and high-tech industries accelerated. Overall, as monthly high-frequency data, the revenue and profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is generally consistent with the income / profit trend of A-share listed companies. The latest data in March 2024 show that the cumulative growth rate of operating income of industrial enterprises is 2.3%. The cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate is 4.3%, superimposed with a low base in 2023, and subsequent corporate profits are expected to continue to pick up.
In terms of profitability, A-share gross margin continued to repair, but ROE fell again. 24Q1 A-share gross margin (TTM) is almost on a par with 23Q4, rebounding from 17.0 per cent of 23Q2 (down from 20.5 per cent of 2018Q4 and the lowest since 2010) to the current 17.3 per cent. The A-share ROE index has historically lagged 1-3 quarters behind the inflection point of net profit growth, and this round of A-share ROE has fallen for eight consecutive quarters from the 21Q2 high (9.6%) to the 23Q2 low (7.2%). But ROE fell again after bottoming out for two quarters, falling from 7.5 per cent of 23Q4 to 7.3 per cent (the lowest since 2010 was 6.7 per cent of 20Q1).
The three factors of ROE DuPont all decreased. The asset turnover ratio (TTM) of A-share 24Q1 fell from 59.7 per cent of 23Q4 to 59.4 per cent of 24Q1. Asset turnover can reflect the strength of business activities. The current asset turnover has declined for 8 consecutive quarters since 22Q1, which is a drag on ROE repair. The equity multiplier (TTM) fell from 285.2 per cent of 23Q4 to 284.2 per cent of 24Q1, and the net interest rate on sales (TTM) fell from 4.4 per cent of 23Q4 to 4.3 per cent of 24Q1. The upward slowdown in gross profit margin and cost-side expense rate led to a weakening of net sales margin.
At the expense end, it was observed that the willingness of enterprises to spend fell compared with the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of 24Q1 A-share financial expenses has again turned negative to-4.6%. Under the downward trend of interest rates, policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions have been added. Since 22Q4, A-share financial expenses have remained at 0.9% of revenue, which is at an all-time low. The growth rate of sales expenses was 5.5%, which was slower than that of 23Q4 but higher than the 5.3% growth of 23Q1 in the same period last year. Under the strategy of reducing cost and increasing efficiency, the growth rate of management expenses continued the downward trend compared with the same period last year, and 24Q1 dropped to 4.8 per cent. Overall, the willingness of enterprises to spend is low, with the proportion of 24Q1 expenses accounting for 10.3% of operating income, which is basically the same as that of 23Q4 and 0.2 percentage points higher than 23Q3.
The net profit growth rate of gem and Science and Technology Innovation Board has turned negative to positive, but the revenue growth rates of the three major sectors are all in the downward trend.
Comparison of the profit situation of different sectors: the growth rate of net profit of gem and Science and Technology Innovation Board has turned negative to positive, but the growth rate of main board is still negative; however, the revenue growth rates of these three major plates are all in the downward trend, and the change difference of revenue growth rate of different sectors is not as obvious as that of net profit, which shows that the growth rate of revenue of gem and gem is more significant in the calculation and processing of the annual report in 2023. The motherboard (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) and 24Q1 deducted non-net profit growth of-0.8 per cent and-4.3 per cent, respectively, and revenue growth of 2.8 per cent and-0.1 per cent, respectively. Gem (excluding Wen's shares) and 24Q1 deducted non-net profit growth of-13.0% and 2.2% respectively in 2023, and revenue growth of 6.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Science and Technology Innovation Board and 24Q1 deducted non-net profit growth of-50.4% and 5.2% respectively in 2023, and revenue growth of 4.6% and 3.6% respectively. The main board (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) and gem (excluding Wen's shares) 24Q1 ROE (TTM) are still in the process of falling, but Science and Technology Innovation Board ROE (TTM) rebounded to 4.5 per cent of 24Q1 from 4.0 per cent in 2023.
指数角度，除沪深300和红利指数外，主要指数盈利增速有所回升，各宽基指数营收增速普遍继续下行。盈利能力上，沪深300和中证500等大盘指数毛利率延续修复，ROE除科创50指数外普遍承压回落。
2． 供给端增速放慢，上市公司更加注重分红
2.1库存周期：规模以上工企库存磨底后回升，A股存货同比增速开始拐头向上
2023年11月规上工企产成品存货增速二次磨底，至2024年3月回升至2.5%。A股存货同比增速23Q1首次进入负增长区间，23Q4降至-4.7%，24Q1边际回补，增速回升1.6个百分点至-3.1%。虽然营收增速尚未扭转下滑态势，但由于库存绝对水平较低，存货销售比降至历史低位。
2.2产能周期：资本开支放缓，更加注重投资者回报
24Q1 A股资本开支和在建工程同比增速继续下行，未来转固压力继续下降，固定资产同比开始拐头向下。资本开支累计增速由23Q2的14.0%高点已回落3个季度至24Q1的1.6%，在建工程同比增速由23Q1的19.1%高点连续回落4个季度至24Q1的8.3%。在建工程增速放缓传导至固定资产，固定资产同比增速由23Q4的11.5%回落至24Q1的9.6%。
资本开支放缓背景下，上市公司更加注重投资者回报，各项分红指标均有提升。2023年A股分红公司数量占比（剔除利润为负的样本）达到88.6%，年度分红总额累计约1.3万亿元，整体分红比率（分红金额/归母净利润）上升至43.4%，无论是公司数量占比还是分红比率均是2005年以来的最高值。以2023年年末市值计算A股整体股息率为1.90%，是2006年以来仅次于2018年的股息率（1.93%），因此若是从股债收益率的对比来看，当前的股息率指标表明当前A股市场指数处于底部。
3.A股现金流流入放缓，扩张意愿收缩
三大现金流单季净额来看，A股24Q1现金流流入相较于去年同期放缓，扩张意愿收缩，与上述资本开支增速下行趋势相呼应。24Q1同比23Q1经营性净现金流流出额度有所扩大；筹资性净现金流流入减少，反映企业融资加杠杆意愿不足；23Q4和24Q1投资性净现金流与上年同期相比流出幅度均有所收窄，企业扩张意愿收缩。
A股24Q1收现比（即销售商品提供劳务收到的现金占营业收入比重）中枢继续下行。收付实现制的存在使得营业收入项目中可能因包含应收账款、应付账款等非本期现金项目而无法很好表征企业真实的经营情况与现金流状况。因此，我们采用销售商品提供劳务收到的现金占营业收入比重，来刻画企业真实的经营状况与现金流状况。24Q1营收增速和用来衡量营收质量的收现比均处于下降通道，收现比相较23Q4下降0.4个百分点至100.3%，处于4%的历史低分位。
4．央企在盈利能力和利润增速上仍具优势，民企利润增速改善
成长性：民企利润增速回升，各类型企业营收增速继续下行。（1）收入：剔除银行口径（下同），24Q1央企、地方国企和民企营收累计同比分别回落2.3、4.8和2.5个百分点至-1.5%、-4.1%和2.9%。（2）利润：24Q1央企和地方国企扣非净利润累计同比增速分别为2.7%和-8.1%，增速分别环比23Q4下降1.6和5.2个百分点；24Q1民企扣非净利润累计同比增速提升6.3个百分点至-10.7%。
盈利能力：央国企毛利率和ROE绝对水平靠前，各类企业毛利率继续回升。（1）毛利率：24Q1央企、地方国企和民企毛利率（TTM）环比23Q4均回升0.1个百分点，分别录得17.0%、15.1%和16.3%。（2）ROE：24Q1央企、地方国企和民企ROE（TTM）环比23Q4回落0.1、0.3和0.3个百分点，分别录得8.3%、7.3%和6.5%。其中央企控费能力相对更强，2023年以来央企管理费用同比增速进入负增长区间，央国企销售费用增速也大幅收缩，毛利率低位修复背景下，央国企费用率的下降有助于盈利保持韧性。
5．风险提示
1）国内外经济复苏不及预期；
2）地缘风险不确定性带来对行业基本面的扰动；
3）财报数据具有一定滞后性，不代表未来趋势。